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Decision Making Under Uncertainty

This microcredential introduces participants to diverse ways of assisting people to make decisions in organisational settings. The key themes of uncertainty and ambiguity are emphasised in all stages of the decision-making process, from identifying stakeholder needs and acquiring relevant data, to supporting decision making and influencing stakeholder behaviour.


About this microcredential

Using both hard and soft systems thinking approaches, this microcredential explores various decision analysis methods and discusses practical challenges in rational decision making. Most importantly, the microcredential helps participants develop an understanding of the different types of decision problems they may encounter in their professional lives and the diverse approaches that can be used to tackle them.

Key benefits of this microcredential

This microcredential will equip you to:

  • Develop clear structures and approaches to help you resolve different types of problems.
  • Improve your ability to approach and develop effective solutions to complex problems.

This microcredential aligns with the 3 credit point subject, Decision Making Under Uncertainty (21953) in the Executive Master of Business Administration (C04424).

This microcredential may qualify for recognition of prior learning at this and other institutions.

Who should do this microcredential?

Problem solving is an essential and fundamental skill, no matter the profession or context. This microcredential will be suitable for a wide range of professionals across the public and private sectors. In particular, this may include:

  • Policy officers and evaluators
  • Leaders and managers
  • Product developers and product managers
  • Improvement officers and those tasked with improvement projects within an organisation
  • Management consultants
  • Engineers and information technology professionals.


Full price: $2,988 (GST free)*

*Price subject to change. Please check price at time of purchase. 

Discounts are available for this course. For further details and to verify if you qualify, please check the Discounts section under Additional course information

Enrolment conditions

COVID-19 response 

Additional course information

Course outline

The following content will be covered during the course:

  • Understanding uncertainty and ambiguity in business
  • Decision making under uncertainty
  • Sense-making and the art of decision making in ambiguous situations
  • Critical analysis of stakeholder perspectives.

Course delivery

This course is delivered online using a range of resources, self-directed study and live, interactive sessions with the academic. Course content will be presented to participants in a variety of online formats, including lecture slides, notes, videos and articles.

At the beginning of the unit, participants are expected to review materials and complete tasks on their own before attending the online review sessions with the lecturer (sessions are spread over the learning period). Materials will be provided to participants via the learning management system, but participants are also expected to seek information independently. Feedback will be given following formative assessment and during the online sessions.

Course learning objectives

On successful completion of this course, participants should be able to:

  • Identify different types of uncertainty in real-life decision settings
  • Demonstrate an understanding of the difference between uncertainty and ambiguity and how it affects decision making in organisations
  • Select and apply appropriate decision making techniques.


Assessment task 1: Report (individual) - weighting: 50%

Participants will be provided with data regarding the minimum, maximum and most likely completion times for several tasks that comprise a project. Based on the data provided, participants are required to develop an Excel-based Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the completion time of the project. The simulation should include a graph of cumulative probability as a function of elapsed time. Participants will be required to compose a short report based on the simulation (500 words max, excluding appendices).

Assessment task 2: Report (individual) - weighting: 50%

Participants will be provided with the transcript of a mining company’s board meeting. The assessment task requires participants to:

(i)   Develop an issue map of the meeting using the IBIS notation. The map should focus on identifying the options discussed, arguments for and against them and the criteria for making the decision.

(ii)  Write a report, showing how you developed the map. See the following post for an example

(iii) Using the provided template, do a pairwise comparison to rate the identified options. (Note: while each participant will make a subjective choice as to which option is preferred in each comparison, individual ratings should be guided by the dialogue and each sheet must be internally consistent).

Participants must achieve at least 50% of the course’s total marks and complete all assessments.



  • To complete this online course, you will need a personal computer with adequate internet access and sufficient software and bandwidth to support web conferencing. You will also require an operating system with a web browser compatible with Canvas.


Discounts are available for this course as follows:

  • 5% discount for strategic partners
  • 5% discount for 2 enrolments in UTS Business School microcredentials (same person or same organisation)
  • 10% discount for 3 or more enrolments in UTS Business School microcredentials (same person or same organisation)
  • 5% discount for UTS alumni.

Discounts cannot be combined and only one discount can be applied per person per course session. Discounts can only be applied to the full price. Discounts cannot be applied to any offered special price. 

How to obtain your discount voucher code

  • Please contact the team at with your student number, strategic partnership details or details of group enrolments, to obtain your discount voucher code. 

How to apply your discount voucher 

  • If you are eligible for a UTS alumni discount, please ensure you have provided your UTS student number in your UTS Open Profile (under “A bit about you”). If you have forgotten your UTS student number, email with your full name, UTS degree and year of commencement.  
  • Add this course to your cart 
  • Click on "View Cart" (blue shopping trolley at top right of screen). You will need to sign in or sign up to UTS Open 
  • Enter your eligible code beneath the “Have a code?” prompt and click on the blue "Apply" button 
  • Verify your voucher code has been successfully applied before clicking on the blue "Checkout" button. 






7 wks


Avg 10 hrs/wk

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UTS acknowledges the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation, the Boorooberongal people of the Dharug Nation, the Bidiagal people and the Gamaygal people, upon whose ancestral lands our university stands. We would also like to pay respect to the Elders both past and present, acknowledging them as the traditional custodians of knowledge for these lands.